EOPP: Recent Publications Gerard Padro-i-Miquel: Conflict and Deterrence under Strategic Risk

A paper by Gerard Padro-i-Miquel (joint with Sylvain Chassang) entitled 'Conflict and Deterrence under Strategic Risk' will be published in Quarterly Journal of Economics.

The authors examine the determinants of cooperation and the effectiveness of deterrence when fear is a motive for conflict. They contrast results obtained in a complete information setting to those obtained in a setting with strategic risk, where players have different information about their environment. These two strategic settings allow them to identify and distinguish the role of predatory and pre-emptive incentives as determinants of cooperation and conflict. In their model, weapons unambiguously facilitate peace under complete information. In contrast, under strategic risk, the authors show that increases in weapon stocks can have a non-monotonic effect on the sustainability of cooperation. They also show that under strategic risk, asymmetry in military strength can facilitate peace, and that anticipated peace-keeping interventions may improve incentives for peaceful behaviour.

EOPP: Recent Publications by Tim Besley, Daniel Sturm, Robin Burgess and Oriana Bandiera

The following papers, by EOPP members, will be published:

Robin Burgess, joint with Dave Donaldson (MIT): Can Openness Mitigate the Effects of Weather Shocks? Evidence from India's Famine Era, is forthcoming in the American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings.

Oriana Bandiera, joint with Valentino Larcinese (LSE) and Imran Rasul (UCL): Heterogeneous Class Size Effects: New Evidence from a Panel of University Students, is forthcoming in the Economic Journal.

Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Selim Gulesci and Munshi Sulaiman, joint with Markus Goldstein (World Bank) and Imran Rasul (UCL): Participation in Adolescent Training Programs, is forthcoming in the Journal of the European Economic Association, Papers and Proceedings.

Tim Besley, Daniel Sturm and Torsten Persson (IIES): Political Competition, Policy and Growth: Theory and Evidence from the United States, is forthcoming in the Review of Economic Studies.

For further information and to read abstracts see http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/eopp/_new/publications/recent_publications.asp